Anyone who has spoken with a number of gamblers will no doubt have heard someone talk about a “gambling system”, a sort of mathematical means of beating the casino in games such as roulette. Let me say from the start that there is no system that can do this in the long run, no matter how apparently refined that system is. 

   I remember the first time a gambler explained such a system to me. He had just heard about it himself, and was greatly enthusiastic about it, since he was convinced it would help him come out ahead on his next visit to the casino. Skeptical as always, I suggested we do a trial run, not with real money (since I am not a gambler myself), but simply writing down the bets and results. Being in his office, we had no roulette wheel, so we decided to use playing cards: 18 red cards, 18 black, and one joker, that would represent the green “zero”. (In European roulette, there is only one zero, as opposed to two in American roulette). 

   He wrote down $5, representing his initial bet on red. I (playing the role of the house) chose a card. Black came up; he had lost.  Undaunted, he now bet $10, betting on red again. I selected a black card, he had lost again. Now, he bet twice his previous sum, $20. This time, he won, and the $20 he had won covered his previous two losses ($5+10), and gave him an extra $5. 

   I didn’t know it at the time, but he was playing what is known as the “Martingale system”. Every time you lose, you simply double your bet, on the assumption that sooner or later, you will win, and when you do, you will recover everything you have lost, plus a little more. Sounds logical, doesn’t it? 

   But before you go to your online casino and start playing like this, take my advice: Don’t do it!!! 

   Why not? Well, think about it. It might not happen often, but it will happen, that you lose, for example, eight times in a row. So let’s calculate, assuming your initial bet is only $1, and you’re betting on black each time. The following table shows you what you’d have to bet after each loss of the unlucky streak:

 
Bet:       Result:        Down:

1) $1      Red - Lose        $1

2) $2      Red - Lose        $3 ($1 from the first bet, plus $2 more)

3) $4       Red - Lose        $7

4)  $8      Red - Lose        $15

5)  $16     Red - Lose        $31

6)  $32     Red - Lose        $63

7)  $64     Red - Lose        $127

8)  $128    Red - Lose        $255

    So now, you’re down $240, and the next bet, if you want to keep using this system, would require you to fork over $256. True, if you win the next one, you will recover your losses, and win $1. But do you really wish to risk $256? 

   “Sure!” some would say. “Since red came up eight times in a row, it’s all the more likely that black will now appear!" 

   False! The probability that black will appear is exactly the same as red appearing: 18/37 (48.6%. Not 50%, because of the “0” on the board.) The idea that a streak of one color makes a similar streak of the other more likely is a fallacy. At each spin of the wheel, the odds are always the same as they were on the previous spin. After all, remember that it is quite possible that one color (or even or odd, etc.) will appear many times in a row. It is not at all probable that this will happen at the beginning of play, but once one color has appeared , for instance, eight times in a row, the odds that it will come up another few times is just as great as if there had been no previous streak. 

   In addition, the casinos, knowing that people with huge sums of cash at their disposal, and who are willing to risk many thousands of dollars, will eventually win with this system has prompted them to make a rule that favors the casino: there is always a limit to the amount one can bet at roulette, so even if you did have the funds to keep doubling, you’d soon reach that limit, and would not be allowed to continue playing with this system. 

   Now I know that the Martingale system is perhaps the simplest of all “systems”, and I also know that clever gambles have come up with a myriad of more “sophisticated” systems over the years. The “anti- Martingale”, the Labouchère system, the d’Alembert system, etc. Some that I have seen are amazingly complex. But don’t be fooled by any of them: there is no mathematical system that can, on a regular basis, assure you of beating the house. Read that sentence again, and again, if necessary, until you have taken it to heart, for doing so could save you a lot of grief at the gaming tables!

    Be rational: if there were an infallible system of winning in the casino, a mathematical system that anyone could use, how could the casinos survive? Sooner of later, every gambler in the world would adopt the “super-system”, and would consistently come out ahead, causing the casinos to eventually declare bankruptcy. No mathematical system can assure you of winning, either in the short, or (especially) in the long run.

    But them, how is it that some few gamblers have consistently beat the odds, and won tremendous amounts of money? (and yes, this does happen).

    Of couse,  there are a very few gamblers  who come up with an extremely clever way of beating the house.  Gonzalo Pelayo,  whose  exploits  I  discuss  in  two articles on  this site  is an  excellent  example  (See the articles: "Conversations with an amazingly successful gambler", Parts 1 and 2).

   In other cases, some people tend to win simply because they are lucky. If you have read the articles in this site, you will know that luck is not necessarily mere coincidence, but is rather the ability to sense - or even to know beforehand - just when luck will, or will not, be in your favor.

   Though a mathematical gaming system alone will eventually lead to increasing losses, the knowledge of when it is best for you to play, or to speculate (as reflected in your "Fortune Smiling" Predictive Graphs) when combined with a mathematical gaming system, could possibly be advantageous. This is the subject of our next article:

Article: A possible advantage of a mathematical gambling system

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